This map shows the historical probability (given in percentile) of seasonal average monthly temperature minimum or maximum, falling within the upper (hot), middle (normal), or bottom (cold) one-third ("tercile") of the 1961 to present historical distribution in Zambia given the Terciles of IOD (Postive, Neutral, Negative) during that same season.
The IOD is defined as the difference between SST anomalies of a West box average (50E-70E, 10S-10N) and an East box average (90E-110E, 10S-0N). Anomalies are computed for and with respect to the period of rainfall data availability (1961-present). The IOD is categorized in 3 Tercile classes and the positive tercile indicates warmer SST conditions in the West compared to the East.
Clicking on the map will then display, for the selected point, yearly seasonal temeprature averages time series. The colors of the bars depict what IOD Tercile it was that year, and the horizontal lines show the historical terciles limits. This allows to quickly picture what years fell into what IOD Tercile and into what Temperature Tercile category.
NB: This is not a forecast. It is based just on historical observations of temperature and SST. However, it would be a good tool for exploring the effect of different IOD Terciles on seasonal temperature.
Observations
Monthly Temperature: Minimum or Maximum temperature (1961-present) time series reconstructed from station observations and remote sensing proxies.
Sea Surface Temperature: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperatures (ERSST), at 2˚ spatial resolution, beginning January 1854 from NOAA NCDC.
Contact info@zmd.gov.zm with any questions about or problems with this Map Room.